Since we are in a market free fall and as predicted in Mid-September the real tsunami will happen at the end of Dec until the end of January. It won’t really be over then, but that’s when we’ll really see some scary stuff, much scarier then we have already. So in an effort to help as many of you as quickly as possible with all the instability on that front I’ve consolidated the stock market questions here. There are a lot, and I hope to get to them all tonight, but I maybe being too ambitious, we’ll see. I’ll try. If not today then they will be resolved over the weekend.
Let me remind all of you I’m a freaky psychic, artist type, and don’t know anything about the stock market. I’m only going on what my freaky psychic ability gives me and my knowledge of tarot, and astrology so when you write questions to me, make sure to dumb them down. Or I have to just go with the tarot and ask straight yes/no questions because I often don’t understand what the ins and outs are of particular financial issues, except for very basic stuff about how the market works.
I mentioned in a post a while back that there was a lot of money to be made on the down side of this market, but I wouldn’t advise people who aren’t super savvy with short selling, and all that jazz, to try this during this insane period. Would someone out there who does understand how to do this, please write a comment about the ins and outs of this to educate us? I will take the comment, and turn it into a post, and put it up with credit to whoever takes this on. Perhaps this could be a way for many people who lost a lot of money to make it back over the next couple of months. Think of spreading your knowledge as a public service.
OK, here goes!
Hope you are well. I know you must be getting overloaded with insights and chaos as things start to unravel. You know me with my Moon in Capricorn I am trying to shore up my nest egg… So i have two questions. The first is what do you think of shorting the Dow, betting that it will go down using a Dow etf short over the next 3 months?
Secondly, Etrade stock accounts are not FDIC insured so if we do have anything in the market when chaos strikes can Etrade confiscate it to cover their Banking and Lending arm. Their savings accounts are FDIC insured…. Thanks for looking out for us. All the best to you and your family!
Hi Hope and a Plan,
I think betting the stock market will go down is like betting ice will melt on a stove. I don’t know much about short selling but, yeah, it’s going to go down. And I do think you can make money betting it will go that way.
So I asked the cards if you could make money that way, just to make sure:
The answer: Maybe.
You really have to know what you are doing. If you get someone to help you, it looks like you know a man who is very generous who would be willing to give you advice in this area, then yes. But you really need to understand how all of it works, and your timing has to be impeccable so, talk to people, do research before you go for it.
I asked the second question to the cards.
Again a Maybe.
It seems that they will not have money, be economically depressed, and use their clients money to keep afloat, but I don’t have a feeling this will be legal. So they will eventually have to pay people back. But of course if they go out of business you’ll be out of luck. So you might want to be safe and put your money into one of the FDIC insured accounts where they can’t touch it.
I hate to say this, as it is not a profession that I believe is for the sane, however with these incredibly volatile swings in the market, I have gone back to my origins as a day trader and have been cleaning up. When i taught day trading for some the shops on Wall street, I told everyon 2-3 out of 10 may survive this style of trading. It might be time for short jump back to the days of the soes bandits!
Maybe you could educate us on how to short sell! I agree that if you are well trained and understand short selling and all that complex stuff, and are not a normal everyday person with some long term investments in the market, you can make a bundle. I actually talked about that in another post. However for normal people who stick their money in an IRA or 401k, or a couple of stocks and plan to keep them until retirement, those people need to get out and wait for awhile before re-investing when the market is stable again. Most people fall under that category. I wish I understood the market better to even begin to understand how to make money short selling.
I recently saw an episode of Nightline that addressed the issue of short selling, and talk of making it illegal in the future. It seems there were investors who were actually destroying companies to short sell and make money off them this way, which I guess was what set off this issue of making the practice illegal.
Appreciate your reply to my question re Centro and you asked for the start date. here it is-
Centro was incorporated as Jennings Properties Limited on 18 February 1985, and following a prospectus issued in August of the same year, shares were issued on the Australian Stock Exchange. In 1991 the Company was renamed Centro Properties Limited, and in September 1997, the Company was restructured to a stapled security structure named Centro Properties Group.
Hope this helps and also do not mind your reading using the tarot cards too. Just to refresh the question – Is this stock worth holding or to sell before the coming Tsunami around 21/22 Dec 2008? Or is there any hope of this company surviving?
One more question re your predicted Tsunami around 21/22 Dec- does that mean the US Dow will fall big time and the flow on effect on the rest of the world stock markets like here in Australia.
Thanking you in anticipation.
I can’t really run a chart without an exact date, and place at the least and since there are so many I wouldn’t know which was most useful. I’ll ask the tarot if it would be best to sell this stock before the end of December:
This is a Maybe. And I sense from the card layout, if you can wait a long time, it will be OK. If not sell within the next week or so. The sooner the better in this case.
In answer to the second question. That’s a big YES according to the tarot with the tower card coming up in the upright position — the super bad position. So it looks like the fall of our economy will trigger a domino effect that will sweep across all the markets like it did in October only in a much bigger way.
Denise, do you see any positive movement in the US stock markets – Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite in the next 2 weeks (Thanksgiving week, and 1st week of December), before your December tsunami begins in earnest? I trying to intuit if there’ll be some “bounce” up before that big downturn starts, and getting stuck. Thanks for your blog and answer – hopefully within a day or two!
I’ll ask the tarot. Will their be a “bounce” up in the S&P 500 in the coming three weeks?
The cards say yes and no. The next couple of weeks won’t be good but in about 3 weeks there will be big turn for the better before the plunge. Perhaps this will be when the announcement to bail out the auto industry takes place.
Will there be a “bounce” up in Nasdaq Composite in the next three weeks?
That’s a basic no. But it actually looks like next week there will be some sunshine and better spirits and then back down. It doesn’t quite look as dire as the S&P or the stock market though.
Will there be a bounce up in the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the next three weeks?
That’s a no. There maybe one day in a few weeks that looks OK, where it goes up a bit but that’s as good as it will get. That day will be in the middle of the week. And it won’t last, the volatility will continue until the plunge.
With so much talk about companies bankrupting...I was curious about the wireless industry and what will become of Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile? Thanks, Amber Sent from my BlackBerry wireless handheld. Hi Amber, I couldn't find data for any company except AT&T Wireless. If you can find the start dates for the other companies I can run charts on them. Here's AT&T's chart: It looks like they will have problems with companies they have partnered with over the next couple of years but once they get over that aspect they will do really well. Actually they have an incredibly healthy and prosperous time starting in 2012. So it could be they take a hit because of the economy and their investments like everyone else but will recover and do very well. The next question is from someone wishing to remain anonymous:Thanks, also, I have two stocks QCOM qualcomm and SNDK sandisk, that I am thinking of holding. But I'm not sure how they'll perform.So here are the charts for Qualcomm and Sandisk:Pluto is transiting Qualcomm's 12th house of loss. I have no idea what this company does or is, but itisn't good to have Pluto transiting this house, that being said in 2014 transiting Pluto will be makingvery good aspects to the natal Jupiter and the natal Moon as it conjuncts the natal Uranus. So there willbe some sort of unexpected restructuring that helps this company and makes it very profitable for a periodof time or a new technology or innovation that really gives them a boost. However, Pluto will be goingthrough this company's 12th for a very long time and will hit Neptune, then sextile native Plutoso there will be up and downs, and a lot of restructuring behind the scenes, but ultimately whenPluto goes over the ascendent in 2019, this company will be dramatically transformed or will parish.Even though Pluto is going through the 12th (death and loss house) it is making good aspects.So I would say in general this company will have some serious troubles, but manage to reorganize itselfand do OK once the market recovers a bit. Right now though Pluto will be on the cusp of the 11/12 housesstarting in the very beginning of December and that is very likely going to cause serious loss. Soif you can leave your money in this company for a long while it will probably be OK, but not until2012.Now for Sandisk:Transiting Pluto is just about to make an exact inconjunction to the company's natal moon again in early December, late November.Both are at 0 degrees. This aspect is not good for their investors, and I'm not going to bother with the astro speak,just tell you that this will cause a crash in value for investors which will continue until transiting Plutoopposes the company's part of fortune in Cancer in 2010. There will probably be some trouble then withpartnerships or legal issues they will have. Once they solve that they should do better in 2011. So ifyou can wait for at least a couple of years, preferably longer, then you should recover some of the losses you willhave in the coming months.I can't say whether people will make money holding onto stocks however as Ihave this weird feeling it's going to take a long time to get the market value up to the place it waswhen most people bought their stocks. Even though things will be getting better. And companies maybedoing OK, its sort of like what happened with the dot.com thing where everything became so overblownthere was now way to get back to where the height of those values were at their highest point.It's my intuition that it will really take a decade for many people (those who remained in their bluechip, stocks and made conservative investments) to get to the fiscal place they were a year or so ago.I feel the value of the markets will rise as things change, but it won't be the wild ride we've seen, it will be more ofa steady goat climbing a mountain.OK, my baby just woke up so I have to excuse myself and answer the following questions tomorrow:Here's a sampling of the next batch.Best wishes, many blessings and good luck to all of you!Denise
Thanks for the reply. In regard to further info,
OZ Minerals is a merger between 2 companies - Oxiana and Zinifex.
The name OZ Minerals was approved by share holders on 18 July 2008 and started trading under that name on 23 July 2008. Hope this is sufficient info.
For the people that have taken your advise and sold stocks and went to cash this year, when do you adivse investing again? I have a lot of cash in a money market fund in my 401k waiting to do this. I have a choice of 2 US domestic bond funds, 1 foreign fund and several US domestic stock funds. What would you invest in and when would you start? Thanks for doing this.
thanks so much for your blogs. I really enjoy coming back here. You have predicted a stock market “Tsunami” for December. Things are so extremely bad already… how much worse can it get…? Do you see the Dow Jones Index going below 6000 in December…? Also, do you expect Deflation or Inflation in 2009? Are they going to print so much money that the dollar becomes completely worthless and we will finally need a new currency, or o you see the dollar getting stronger, like right now?
Thanks a lot in advance,
your advice is truly appreciated!
you are awesome. Thanks for taking the time and write to us all.
I am holding stock from the company AUY. Do you see the price going back up to between 10 to 30?
Thanks a lot,
keep up the great work,
Hi Denise firstly i would like to thank you on answering my question about GM and i look forward to the answer on Iran. I agree with this blog on the Auto industry 100%. Even with a bail out of 25 billion this would only last 2 -3 months as it costs 11 billion to keep afloat For GM alone. They will run out of reserves in roughly 1-2 months time.
I’m afraid you are right there, Denise. :o( It’s too bad these people have to be so mean.
Do you think this bomb is from domestic or foreign terrorists?
Also, you’ll probably answer this tomorrow, but won’t Michelle Obama get bored just doing First Lady stuff? She’s a high powered lawyer herself with a promising career that she has just side lined. Will she be working in a professional capacity behind the scenes?
Another question about a woman and politics…
Chelsea Clinton worked a great deal on her mom’s campaign. She seemed to really be enjoying herself. She’s got the degree for it and she’s been around the halls of power all her life. It just seems natural for her to go into politics herself. Do you see Chelsea in politics in the future?
One last question, do you see a place for Arnold Swartzenegger in the Obama administration? I know he has asked to “join the team” several times publicly.
Thanks in advance! I love your blog.
It’s a strange feeling within me that is so at peace and sees all possitive future experiences peaceful. I am not religious (organized religion) and cried when President elect Obama was elected. Obama seems like he gets it, worldwide. Whether he can make a difference with the problems we have today, will remain to be seen. Maybe he will convince the world to in John Lennons words, “give peace a chance”,
Thank you in advance for answering my question.
If Obama chooses Hillary for the Sec of State job, will she be a team player and represent him to well or will she be a disappointment to Obama?
Will Gov. Richardson be offered a position in the Obama Administration?
5 thoughts on “Answering Readers’, Stock Market Edition…”
Denise, something you said needs to be clarified, for the benefit of your readers, re ETrade/FDIC/stock holdings, because I know you do not want to give wrong information. I’ll also address, briefly, the ‘short’ issue for regular folks. I am a professional investor (and read you out of curiousity and respect for intuitives, though I don’t base my work on it).
You are right, that investment assets (stocks, bonds, mutual funds) in brokerage accounts aren’t FDIC insured. This goes for mutual funds held at a mutual-fund company, too. But, your assets are covered by “SIPC” insurance, are kept separate from the investment firms’s own assets, and can’t be seized by the government or creditors if the firm goes under. For example, anyone with an account at Lehman didn’t lose it -their money was separate from the firm. Any reputable brokerage firm, and any you’ve ever heard of is, like ETrade or Schwab or Merrill Lynch, etc., has “SIPC” insurance that covers your brokerage/mutual fund assets up to $500K, and has private insurance (often from Lloyds) to a much higher amount than that. If it’s a firm you’ve never heard of, always verify that a firm has SIPC and additional insurance before giving your money to them. Private “pooled” investments, like hedge funds, usually don’t.
SIPC insurance does _not _protect your investments from market fluctuation or investment loss just because the stock/fund has gone down in value. It just protects their value on the day a firm goes under, like Lehman on Sept 16, until they can be transferred to another brokerage firm. That transfer happens ASAP, but it may take a few days, which means you can’t buy or sell anything during that time. SIPC protects the value until the transfer is complete.
Eveyone should know, too, that if they opened an account at a bank that has stocks or mutual funds, or purchased an annuity there, it’s a _brokerage_ account, not a bank account. The only thing an FDIC-insured bank account will have is cash or CDs. Also, a brokerage account at ETrade, etc., may actually have cash assets that are FDIC insured – this is different from a “money-market fund”, which is not. Ask the firm. A CD, whether bought at a local bank or in your brokerage account, is always FDIC insured, since banks create these (and sell them on the “open market”, not just your local branch).
As for “shorting”:
For those who think the market is going down and is not already a sophisticated investor, they should _not_ take a crash course in shorting stocks. Shorting is dangerous – you can lose a lot more than you started with – and should be left to professionals. However, the regular investor can easily purchase an “inverse” fund, which goes the exact opposite of the market. I won’t name any, but there are 2 mutual-fund companies that offer them, and a whole lot of ETFs that do; Google to find (I caution anyone against using leveraged funds when inversing. ..and if you don’t already know an ETF is, or what a leveraged fund is, then you shouldn’t get into these in the first place). If you want to understand these more you can always interview an experienced, local financial advisor for education and help (I am remaining anonymous and will not answer questions on this or any other blog). Never do anything you don’t understand, or don’t understand the downside risk of, even if someone is helping you. Again, while the average investor can easily purchase funds that inverse the market, only sophisticated, experienced investors should actually “short” stocks or get involved in futures or options. Unless, of course, you don’t mind losing lots of money. And, Denise, I would caution you in any advice you allow to be posted on this subject.
In regards to trading the stock market and making money on downside action; I would say that one may want to look into and learn about trading stock options. They can by Puts to play any downside action (Calls for upside action). If they own the stock they can sell Calls . The positive side of buying an option is that the potential lost is limited to the actual amount of the cost of the purchase of the option. For example, if one spent $1000 on a Dow Jones Index (DJX) Put option with the ideal the DJX is going down further, then if the market did go up the most that one could lose is $1000. There is a ton of info out there online for one to learn about option trading so one can do their research. In my experience, and if one was just getting started. I would suggest buying an option that will expire at least 90 days out, and that is either “at the money” or slightly “in the money”. The full explanation of these terms can be learned in the many resources available online on how to trade stock options. It would take too much space here to explain. Option trading has limited risk and maximum profit possibility, and in many cases it would be better, and certainly does not require one to have a “lot of money” to trade options, as compared to trying to short sell an actual stock(s) which could lead to unlimited losses, even of money not in an account. So I would say to your readers that if they want to pursue making money in the markets on downside action they should strongly consider trading stock options. Additionally, the profits come faster and at a greater percentage rate than trading the actual stock.
As a side note to you. I don’t know if you have ever looked into monetizing your successful blog (congrates) to earn money and help with any cost. If you look into this I would suggest trying bidadvertisers and adsense. This is my referral link if you decide to try bid advertisers:
One other thing, I have found it difficult to find the comment box for your blog when reading it. I don’t know if there a way you can make this readily available on the front page and/or with a side link.
Hi Denise, do you still think that stock markets are going to crash in december-january? Can you give us more thoughts in to this. Thank you.
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Consider investing in stocks that pay dividends. That way,
even if the stock declines a bit in value, you are receiving dividends that can offset some of the losses.
And if the stock price rises, the dividends are a bonus that add directly to your bottom line.
They can also provide you with a periodic income.